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Climate Change

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January, 2021


  • The World Bank Group


Projected average temperature rises in Bangladesh are broadly in line with the global average. The highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) projects a rise of 3.6°C by end of the century, above the 1986–2005 baseline, compared to a rise of 1.0°C on the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6). • Rises in minimum and maximum temperatures are considerably higher than the change in average temperature and are concentrated in the period December–March. • Increased frequency of periods of prolonged high heat are a major threat to human health and living standards in Bangladesh, particularly in urban environments and for outdoor laborers. • Livelihoods in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, which include many of the poorest communities, are under threat from saline intrusion and degrading natural resources linked to climate change. • Flash, river, and coastal flooding are likely to be exacerbated by intensified extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and associated storm surges, placing lives, infrastructure, and the economy at risk. • Without adaptation, the number of people exposed to an extreme river flood is expected to grow by 6–12 million by the 2040s, and the number of people facing coastal inundation could grow by 2–7 million by 2070s. • Food production and the agricultural sector could face reduced yields driven by temperature rises in the growing season, saline intrusion, increased drought frequency, flooding and waterlogging. • Climate impacts are not restricted to the coastal zone and hotspots of vulnerability can be found across the country. Global modelling and local evidence all suggest that poor and marginalized groups and women are likely to suffer disproportionately in a changing climate. Unless rapid global decarbonization can be achieved, inequalities are likely to widen. • Despite recent progress in disaster risk management, adaptation and disaster risk reduction are still urgent priority in Bangladesh as the livelihoods and well-being of millions of people are threatened


Climate Risk Country Profile: Bangladesh (2021): The World Bank Group.


The World Bank Group

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The World Bank Group