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Projecting climate migration in Bangladesh using agent based modeling and climate data
Introduction: There is fear that climate change will lead to the displacement of millions of people in the next 100 years. This has led to increased academic interest in estimating the trends of climate-related migration. Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climate change and is very likely to experience mass climate migration before the end of the century. Eorts have been made to forecast this climate migration using agent based modeling. Less attention has been paid to how the physical climate is represented in these models. Methods: We address this gap, by developing an agent based model which takes dynamic climate input from climate models, i.e. data on temperature, precipitation and wind speed. It translates climate scenario data from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into a likelihood that a region in Bangladesh will experience extreme weather (heatwaves, floods, and cyclones) and finds the possible migration outcomes. It can run on an upazila level, the smallest administrative division in Bangladesh. Results: The model shows that there will be an accumulative number of over 22 million internal climate migrants in Bangladesh by 2050, with most of the migrants originating from the center of the country and migrating to other upazilas in the center and the southeast. Discussion: The inclusion of dierent types of extreme weather events is used to try to project the spatial movement of migrants. The projected number of migrants found is much greater than other studies in this area, but the locations that they move between remains the same.
From decades to years: Rising seas and cyclones amplify Bangladesh’s storm-tide hazards in a warming climate
Bangladesh has the world’s highest cyclone-induced mortality, yet future risks remain unclear, challenging sustainable development. Here, we present a comprehensive storm-tide risk assessment for Bangladesh using a physics-based approach. Our findings reveal rising risks across emission pathways, with uneven impacts by region and season. This timely assessment offers valuable guidance for climate adaptation, infrastructure planning, and coastal resilience strategies while serving as a valuable tool for other regions facing similar climate threats.
গ্রিন ক্লাইমেট ফান্ড প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউল সেশন গাইড
জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন একুশ শতকের অন্যতম বৈশ্বিক ঝুঁকি। জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের প্রভাবে বিশ্বের ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত দেশসমূহের মধ্যে বাংলাদেশ অন্যতম। জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের ক্ষতিকর প্রভাব মোকাবেলার উদ্দেশ্যে গণপ্রজাতন্ত্রী বাংলাদেশ সরকার ২০০৯ সালে “বাংলাদেশ ক্লাইমেট চেঞ্জ স্ট্র্যাটেজি এন্ড এ্যাকশন প্ল্যান (বিসিসিএসএপি)” প্রণয়ন করেছে এবং ২০১০ সালে বিসিসিএসএপি বাস্তবায়নের লক্ষ্যে উনড়বয়ন সহযোগী দেশসমূহের আর্থিক সহায়তায় “বাংলাদেশ ক্লাইমেট চেঞ্জ রেজিলিয়েন্স ফান্ড (বিসিসিআরএফ)” নামে একটি তহবিল গঠন করে। বিসিসিআরএফ-এর ৯০ শতাংশ অর্থ সরকারি প্রকল্পে বরাদ্দ প্রদান করা হয় এবং অবশিষ্ট ১০ শতাংশ অর্থ এনজিওসমূহের মাধ্যমে কমিউনিটি পর্যায়ে জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন সংশ্লিষ্ট অভিযোজন কার্যμম বাস্তবায়নে ব্যবহƒত হয়েছে। জাতীয় বাজেট হতে অর্থায়নের দ্বারা গঠিত হয়েছে। ক্লাইমেট চেঞ্চ ট্রাষ্ট ফান্ড। এছাড়াও, বেসরকারি/এনজিও পর্যায়ে স্থানীয় পর্যায়ে, জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন সংশ্লিষ্ট অভিযোজন ও প্রশমন কার্যμম চলমান রয়েছে। অর্থাৎ সরকারি-বেসরকারি সকল পর্যায়ে জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন বিষয়ক কার্যμম পরিচালার জন্য জ্ঞানের প্রয়োজনীয়তা রয়েছে। জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন বিষয়ে প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক সক্ষমতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য জিসিএফ-এর সহায়তায় রেডিনেস সাপোর্ট প্রকল্পের মাধ্যমে পিকেএসএফ বিভিনড়ব সরকারি/বেসরকারি তিান, পিকেএসএফ-এর সহযোগী সংস্থা ও অন্যান্য প্রতিষ্ঠানের কর্মকর্তাদের জিসিএফ-এর তহবিলের বহার দতার �ি�র জ কাজ করছে। এরই ধারাবাহিকতায় বিভিনড়ব সরকারি/বেসরকারি সংস্থার কর্মকর্তাদের দক্ষতা বৃদ্ধির জন্য পিকেএসএফ-এর পরিবেশ ও জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন ইউনিট জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন বিষয়ে একটি প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউল প্রস্তুত করেছে। প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটি সহজ সরল ভাষায় সংশ্লিষ্ট সকল বিষয় সংযুক্ত করে প্রস্তুত করা হয়েছে। প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটিতে আবহাওয়া ও জলবায়ু, জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের কারণ, জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের প্রভাব, জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন মোকাবেলায় করণীয় এবং গ্রিন ক্লাইমেট ফান্ড-এর কার্যপ্রণালী সম্পর্কে বিস্তারিত বর্ণনা করা হয়েছে। পিকেএসএফ-এর বিভিনড়ব প্রকল্প ও কর্মসূচি বাস্তবায়নের অভিজ্ঞতাকে একত্রিত করে মাঠ পর্যায়ে জনসচেতনতা বৃদ্ধির লক্ষ্যে এই প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটি প্রণয়ন করা হয়েছে। প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটি তিনটি খন্ডে বিভক্ত (মডিউল-১: জলবায়ু পরিবর্তন বিষয়ক ধারণা, মডিউল ২: পরিবেশ বিষয়ক প্রাথমিক ধারণা এবং মডিউল-৩: জিসিএফ এর কার্যপ্রণালী বিষয়ক ধারণা)। জলবায়ু পরিবর্তনের দ্বারা ক্ষতিগ্রস্ত দরিদ্র জনগোষ্ঠীর অভিযোজন সক্ষম করে গড়ে তুলতে বিভিনড়ব পর্যায়ে নিয়োজিত উনড়বয়কর্মীদের জন্য এই প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটি কার্যকরি ভূমিকা রাখবে বলে আমরা আশা করছি। প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটি মৌলিক কোনো গ্রন্থ নয়, বিভিনড়ব সেকেন্ডারি উৎস্য থেকে সংকলিত এবং মাঠ পর্যায়ের অভিজ্ঞতার আলোকে প্রস্তুত করা হয়েছে। পরবর্তীতে একটি অভ্যন্তরীণ কর্মশালার মাধ্যমে সংশ্লিষ্ট সকলের মতামতের ভিত্তিতে প্রশিক্ষণ মডিউলটি চূড়ান্ত করা হয়েছে। মডিউলটি একটি পরিবর্তনশীল ডকুমেন্ট হিসেবে বিবেচিত হবে। সময় সময় নতুন এবং প্রয়োজনীয় তথ্যাদি সংযোজন/বিয়োজনের মাধ্যমে হালনাগাদ করা হবে। মডিউলটি সকলের জন্য উন্মুক্ত তবে, প্রাথমিকভাবে মডিউলটি গ্রিন ক্লাইমেট ফান্ডের জন্য যারা প্রকল্প প্রস্তাবনা তৈরি এবং দাখিল করতে আগ্রহী তাদেরকে লক্ষ্য করে তৈরি করা হয়েছে। তবে, আগ্রহী যে কেউই মডিউলটি ব্যবহার করতে পাবরেন। এই “প্রশিক্ষণ সেশন গাইড”- টি প্রশিক্ষণ পরিচালায় একটি গাইডলাইনের ভূমিকা পালন করবে।
BANGLADESH CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ATLAS Exposures, Vulnerabilities, and Risks—Volume II
Climate change is a reality, and Bangladesh is one of the countries considered most vulnerable to it. Most development projects in Bangladesh have inherent sensitivity to changing climate and its impacts, and this sensitivity may lead to significant losses affecting the country’s overall economy. It is crucial to have a better understanding of the impacts of climate change, natural hazards, and disasters on different development projects—especially for the Bangladesh Planning Commission, as the country’s central planning organization responsible for approving and allocating budget resources to all development projects in the country. Such understanding of a complex issue is one of the recent imperatives in policy formulation, decision-making, and development planning that, in turn, are further enabled and strengthened by holistic, integrated geospatial perspectives. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is closely associated with the Government of Bangladesh on climate change adaptation and disaster resilience through its operations in water resources management including flood and riverbank erosion management, coastal town protection, and other projects. This is part of Operational Priority 3 in ADB’s Strategy 2030 that focuses on tackling climate change, building climate and disaster resilience, and enhancing environmental sustainability. In this context, ADB recognizes the value of easyto-use technical resources that promote country capacity for climate risk assessment and adaptation planning processes. The Bangladesh Climate and Disaster Risk Atlas is a major output of Establishing a Climate Risk Screening System for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into National Development Budgeting Activities in Bangladesh, under an ADB regional knowledge and support (capacity development) technical assistance. This atlas aims to promote the sustainable development of Bangladesh’s agriculture and water resources sectors and their various components, by enhancing the understanding of stakeholders on the variability of climate change scenarios, other hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and their combinations as risks, to which these sectors are exposed. The geospatial maps of Bangladesh based from the geographic information system (GIS) presented in this two-volume atlas will be very useful for the country’s policymakers and development partners, in crafting climate change and disaster resilient overall development plans. The Bangladesh Planning Commission, particularly its Programming Division, has taken the initiative to mainstream climate change adaptation along with disaster risk reduction, poverty alleviation, and gender in all projects under the country’s Annual Development Programme (ADP). To support the designing of climate-resilient projects, in 2014 the Planning Commission published a Development Project Pro-Forma/Proposal Manual in which an Integrated Climate Change, Disaster, and Environment (ICCDE) Framework has been incorporated to support the country’s response to risks associated with climate change. This atlas, based on the ADB framework underpinning the climate risk screening and climate risk vulnerability assessment (CRS/CRVA) processes and tools, supports the ICCDE Framework by presenting spatial information and maps necessary for assessing future development investments in terms of their risks to climate and geophysical hazards. It is appreciated that the Planning Commission intends to mainstream and adopt these to evaluate, establish, and address the climatic sensitivity of development projects in Bangladesh. Building on the exemplary partnership between Bangladesh and ADB, this atlas is another product promoting knowledge and development with well-designed and targeted interventions that positively contribute to the country’s growth. It targets concerned stakeholders with current or planned development activities in Bangladesh, including the public and private sectors, nongovernment organizations, research and academic community, development partner agencies, other financial institutions, and the general public. Apart from the overall visualization and spatial analysis for CRS/CRVA, the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk maps contained in the atlas will be useful for a wide range of other practical applications such as infrastructure planning and design, hazard mitigation, and disaster-proofing, thus ensuring development continuity in the country. It is envisioned that the Bangladesh Climate and Disaster Risk Atlas will significantly contribute to rendering important sector development investments more resilient to hazard-specific risk scenarios in the short, medium, and long terms. We hope users will be able to derive maximum benefits from the information presented in this publication.
BANGLADESH CLIMATE AND DISASTER RISK ATLAS Hazards—Volume I
Climate change is a reality, and Bangladesh is one of the countries considered most vulnerable to it. Most development projects in Bangladesh have inherent sensitivity to changing climate and its impacts, and this sensitivity may lead to significant losses affecting the country’s overall economy. It is crucial to have a better understanding of the impacts of climate change, natural hazards, and disasters on different development projects—especially for the Bangladesh Planning Commission, as the country’s central planning organization responsible for approving and allocating budget resources to all development projects in the country. Such understanding of a complex issue is one of the recent imperatives in policy formulation, decision-making, and development planning that, in turn, are further enabled and strengthened by holistic, integrated geospatial perspectives. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is closely associated with the Government of Bangladesh on climate change adaptation and disaster resilience through its operations in water resources management including flood and riverbank erosion management, coastal town protection, and other projects. This is part of Operational Priority 3 in ADB’s Strategy 2030 that focuses on tackling climate change, building climate and disaster resilience, and enhancing environmental sustainability. In this context, ADB recognizes the value of easy-to-use technical resources that promote country capacity for climate risk assessment and adaptation planning processes. The Bangladesh Climate and Disaster Risk Atlas is a major output of Establishing a Climate Risk Screening System for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into National Development Budgeting Activities in Bangladesh, under an ADB regional knowledge and support (capacity development) technical assistance. This atlas aims to promote the sustainable development of Bangladesh’s agriculture and water resources sectors and their various components, by enhancing the understanding of stakeholders on the variability of climate change scenarios, other hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and their combinations as risks, to which these sectors are exposed. The geospatial maps of Bangladesh based from the geographic information system (GIS) presented in this two-volume atlas will be very useful for the country’s policymakers and development partners, in crafting climate change and disaster resilient overall development plans . The Bangladesh Planning Commission, particularly its Programming Division, has taken the initiative to mainstream climate change adaptation along with disaster risk reduction, poverty alleviation, and gender in all projects under the country’s Annual Development Programme (ADP). To support the designing of climate-resilient projects, in 2014 the Planning Commission published a Development Project Pro-Forma/Proposal Manual in which an Integrated Climate Change, Disaster, and Environment (ICCDE) Framework has been incorporated to support the country’s response to risks associated with climate change. This atlas, based on the ADB framework underpinning the climate risk screening and climate risk vulnerability assessment (CRS/CRVA) processes and tools, supports the ICCDE Framework by presenting spatial information and maps necessary for assessing future development investments in terms of their risks to climate and geophysical hazards. It is appreciated that the Planning Commission intends to mainstream and adopt these to evaluate, establish, and address the climatic sensitivity of development projects in Bangladesh. Building on the exemplary partnership between Bangladesh and ADB, this atlas is another product promoting knowledge and development with well-designed and targeted interventions that positively contribute to the country’s growth. It targets concerned stakeholders with current or planned development activities in Bangladesh, including the public and private sectors, nongovernment organizations, research and academic community, development partner agencies, other financial institutions, and the general public. Apart from the overall visualization and spatial analysis for CRS/CRVA, the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk maps contained in the atlas will be useful for a wide range of other practical applications such as infrastructure planning and design, hazard mitigation, and disaster-proofing, thus ensuring development continuity in the country. It is envisioned that the Bangladesh Climate and Disaster Risk Atlas will significantly contribute to rendering important sector development investments more resilient to hazard-specific risk scenarios in the short, medium, and long terms. We hope users will be able to derive maximum benefits from the information presented in this publication.
CLIMATE FINANCE IN BANGLADESH: SITUATION ANALYSIS
USAID/Bangladesh asked the Climate Economic Analysis for Development, Investment, and Resilience (CEADIR) Activity to conduct a situation analysis on climate finance in Bangladesh. The purpose was to assess the policy environment, institutional arrangements and the government’s capacity to access and implement climate change projects; and explore modalities for achieving a functional institutional arrangement for managing climate finance in Bangladesh. The assessment consisted of a literature review and key informant interviews with USAID and other donors, implementers, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB), and civil society representatives. CEADIR reviewed government policies, strategies, and plans as well as annual reports and assessment documents related to climate change finance and implementation. CEADIR focused the analysis on three general aspects of the climate-related finance experience: enabling environment, institutional structures and functions, and institutional capacity. CEADIR reviewed government policies, actions, regulations, and strategies and the experience with domestic and external resources for climate finance. The key enabling environment challenges for climate finance are the need for greater high-level commitment in setting priorities and improving governance, accountability, and transparency. Some of the identified problems included large amounts of unaccounted funding and failure to adhere to mandated processes for project review and implementation monitoring. CEADIR focused on two main institutional structure issues—coordination of whole-of-government strategic planning and monitoring, reporting, and verification capacity. The delineation of climate finance roles and responsibilities across ministries was not sufficiently clear. However, key informants did not agree on whether the lead coordination role should be taken by Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Planning (MoP), or a new ministry or commission. There were also concerns on the limited focus of monitoring and reporting on tracking project expenditures rather than identifying implementation issues and results. Donors have invested significant resources to help the GoB develop and sustain technical and financial capacity related to climate finance. Nevertheless, there were still commonly reported gaps in systems, tools, and skills for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories, vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning, and project preparation that have limited the country’s ability to compete for external finance. The GoB has relied heavily on the staff and consultants of development partners in designing or analyzing projects, preparing reports, and developing strategies rather than sustainable government capacity development. Despite a wide range of views on how to strengthen Bangladesh’s climate finance system, there was general agreement on four priorities: 1. Demonstrating greater political will by elevating climate changes issues in the development agenda and using the authority and convening power of government; 2. Strengthening political and technical leadership on climate change to make better policy, regulatory, investment, and implementation decisions; 3. Increasing coordination and collaboration of public sector institutions for cohesive and harmonized action; and 4. Improving the accountability and transparency of GoB processes and systems for full compliance with international standards for financial management, reporting, and verification.
Bangladesh Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR)
Evidence from the last decade shows that the parts of Bangladesh exposed to multiple overlapping shocks have witnessed relatively slower poverty reduction. In the years ahead, climate change is likely to continue to slow the progress on poverty reduction. The poor and most vulnerable populations are most impacted due to their reliance on agriculture and other climate-sensitive natural resources for income and livelihoods. With higher frequency of climate related shocks and disasters vulnerable populations and the chronically poor will face long lasting and multigenerational effects, resulting in costly coping strategies such as divesting productive assets and curtailing investments in human capital (e.g., nutrition and education). Migration costs are often prohibitive. Strong, adaptive social protection measures to enable poorer households to overcome barriers to internal mobility, are needed. Those households assigned monetary incentives to temporarily out-migrate during the lean season (monga) are likely to do so, suggesting the presence of significant credit constraints.
BANGLADESH’S AGRICULTURE, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT SECTOR ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGY
This country sector assessment (CSA) considers the context and issues facing the agriculture, natural resources, and rural development (ANR) sector in Bangladesh; it also identifies needs and opportunities for Asian Development Bank (ADB) support. Our findings inform the bank’s ANR strategy for Bangladesh. This CSA reviews (i) sector performance, including constraints and opportunities; (ii) government policies, strategies, and plans for the sector; and (iii) ADB and other development partners’ support and experience in the sector. Based on our analysis and findings, this assessment identifies strategic directions and investment priorities for ADB in Bangladesh’s ANR sector, in line with the country partnership strategy (CPS) 2021–2025
CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE - BANGLADESH
Projected average temperature rises in Bangladesh are broadly in line with the global average. The highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) projects a rise of 3.6°C by end of the century, above the 1986–2005 baseline, compared to a rise of 1.0°C on the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6). • Rises in minimum and maximum temperatures are considerably higher than the change in average temperature and are concentrated in the period December–March. • Increased frequency of periods of prolonged high heat are a major threat to human health and living standards in Bangladesh, particularly in urban environments and for outdoor laborers. • Livelihoods in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, which include many of the poorest communities, are under threat from saline intrusion and degrading natural resources linked to climate change. • Flash, river, and coastal flooding are likely to be exacerbated by intensified extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and associated storm surges, placing lives, infrastructure, and the economy at risk. • Without adaptation, the number of people exposed to an extreme river flood is expected to grow by 6–12 million by the 2040s, and the number of people facing coastal inundation could grow by 2–7 million by 2070s. • Food production and the agricultural sector could face reduced yields driven by temperature rises in the growing season, saline intrusion, increased drought frequency, flooding and waterlogging. • Climate impacts are not restricted to the coastal zone and hotspots of vulnerability can be found across the country. Global modelling and local evidence all suggest that poor and marginalized groups and women are likely to suffer disproportionately in a changing climate. Unless rapid global decarbonization can be achieved, inequalities are likely to widen. • Despite recent progress in disaster risk management, adaptation and disaster risk reduction are still urgent priority in Bangladesh as the livelihoods and well-being of millions of people are threatened
Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture
The technical paper has been prepared by over 90 scientists from over 20 countries with a view to assisting countries in the development of their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Climate Agreement, the next round of which is to be submitted by 2020, both for adaptation and mitigation actions. The publication contextualizes the topic of climate change in fisheries and aquaculture in terms of poverty alleviation and the implementation of existing policy commitments, such as UN Agenda 2030 and the Paris Climate Agreement, and takes into account current and expected socio-economic dependencies on the sector. It includes marine and inland capture fisheries, as well as aquaculture, recognizing that the level of evidence and responses at global, regional and national scales will differ between sub-sectors. Projections of future catch potentials for marine fisheries are used to describe the expected trends by Exclusive Economic Zone, while regional chapters covering eighteen regions provide a finer analysis of marine capture fisheries and climate change implications in terms of ecological impacts, social and economic development, consequences for fisheries management and examples of recommended or already implemented adaptation options. The sector of Inland fisheries, highly vulnerable to climate change because of the low buffering capacity of water bodies, is analysed in 149 countries and in 8 selected river basins. Short and long-term impacts of climate change on aquaculture are described and presented through country by country analyses of global vulnerability. The Technical Paper also investigates the impacts of extreme events, as there is growing confidence that their number is on the increase in several regions, and is related to anthropogenic climate change. It explores the damage and loss to the fishery and aquaculture sectors and calls for a shift from reactive disaster management to proactive risk management. Moreover, the technical paper provides a toolbox of existing and recommended fisheries and aquaculture risk reduction, adaptation and disaster response, as well as guidance for the development and implementation of sectoral adaptation strategies.