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CLIMATE FINANCE IN BANGLADESH: SITUATION ANALYSIS

USAID/Bangladesh asked the Climate Economic Analysis for Development, Investment, and Resilience (CEADIR) Activity to conduct a situation analysis on climate finance in Bangladesh. The purpose was to assess the policy environment, institutional arrangements and the government’s capacity to access and implement climate change projects; and explore modalities for achieving a functional institutional arrangement for managing climate finance in Bangladesh. The assessment consisted of a literature review and key informant interviews with USAID and other donors, implementers, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB), and civil society representatives. CEADIR reviewed government policies, strategies, and plans as well as annual reports and assessment documents related to climate change finance and implementation. CEADIR focused the analysis on three general aspects of the climate-related finance experience: enabling environment, institutional structures and functions, and institutional capacity. CEADIR reviewed government policies, actions, regulations, and strategies and the experience with domestic and external resources for climate finance. The key enabling environment challenges for climate finance are the need for greater high-level commitment in setting priorities and improving governance, accountability, and transparency. Some of the identified problems included large amounts of unaccounted funding and failure to adhere to mandated processes for project review and implementation monitoring. CEADIR focused on two main institutional structure issues—coordination of whole-of-government strategic planning and monitoring, reporting, and verification capacity. The delineation of climate finance roles and responsibilities across ministries was not sufficiently clear. However, key informants did not agree on whether the lead coordination role should be taken by Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry of Planning (MoP), or a new ministry or commission. There were also concerns on the limited focus of monitoring and reporting on tracking project expenditures rather than identifying implementation issues and results. Donors have invested significant resources to help the GoB develop and sustain technical and financial capacity related to climate finance. Nevertheless, there were still commonly reported gaps in systems, tools, and skills for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories, vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning, and project preparation that have limited the country’s ability to compete for external finance. The GoB has relied heavily on the staff and consultants of development partners in designing or analyzing projects, preparing reports, and developing strategies rather than sustainable government capacity development. Despite a wide range of views on how to strengthen Bangladesh’s climate finance system, there was general agreement on four priorities: 1. Demonstrating greater political will by elevating climate changes issues in the development agenda and using the authority and convening power of government; 2. Strengthening political and technical leadership on climate change to make better policy, regulatory, investment, and implementation decisions; 3. Increasing coordination and collaboration of public sector institutions for cohesive and harmonized action; and 4. Improving the accountability and transparency of GoB processes and systems for full compliance with international standards for financial management, reporting, and verification.

Bangladesh Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR)

Evidence from the last decade shows that the parts of Bangladesh exposed to multiple overlapping shocks have witnessed relatively slower poverty reduction. In the years ahead, climate change is likely to continue to slow the progress on poverty reduction. The poor and most vulnerable populations are most impacted due to their reliance on agriculture and other climate-sensitive natural resources for income and livelihoods. With higher frequency of climate related shocks and disasters vulnerable populations and the chronically poor will face long lasting and multigenerational effects, resulting in costly coping strategies such as divesting productive assets and curtailing investments in human capital (e.g., nutrition and education). Migration costs are often prohibitive. Strong, adaptive social protection measures to enable poorer households to overcome barriers to internal mobility, are needed. Those households assigned monetary incentives to temporarily out-migrate during the lean season (monga) are likely to do so, suggesting the presence of significant credit constraints.

BANGLADESH’S AGRICULTURE, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT SECTOR ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGY

This country sector assessment (CSA) considers the context and issues facing the agriculture, natural resources, and rural development (ANR) sector in Bangladesh; it also identifies needs and opportunities for Asian Development Bank (ADB) support. Our findings inform the bank’s ANR strategy for Bangladesh. This CSA reviews (i) sector performance, including constraints and opportunities; (ii) government policies, strategies, and plans for the sector; and (iii) ADB and other development partners’ support and experience in the sector. Based on our analysis and findings, this assessment identifies strategic directions and investment priorities for ADB in Bangladesh’s ANR sector, in line with the country partnership strategy (CPS) 2021–2025

CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE - BANGLADESH

Projected average temperature rises in Bangladesh are broadly in line with the global average. The highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) projects a rise of 3.6°C by end of the century, above the 1986–2005 baseline, compared to a rise of 1.0°C on the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6). • Rises in minimum and maximum temperatures are considerably higher than the change in average temperature and are concentrated in the period December–March. • Increased frequency of periods of prolonged high heat are a major threat to human health and living standards in Bangladesh, particularly in urban environments and for outdoor laborers. • Livelihoods in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, which include many of the poorest communities, are under threat from saline intrusion and degrading natural resources linked to climate change. • Flash, river, and coastal flooding are likely to be exacerbated by intensified extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and associated storm surges, placing lives, infrastructure, and the economy at risk. • Without adaptation, the number of people exposed to an extreme river flood is expected to grow by 6–12 million by the 2040s, and the number of people facing coastal inundation could grow by 2–7 million by 2070s. • Food production and the agricultural sector could face reduced yields driven by temperature rises in the growing season, saline intrusion, increased drought frequency, flooding and waterlogging. • Climate impacts are not restricted to the coastal zone and hotspots of vulnerability can be found across the country. Global modelling and local evidence all suggest that poor and marginalized groups and women are likely to suffer disproportionately in a changing climate. Unless rapid global decarbonization can be achieved, inequalities are likely to widen. • Despite recent progress in disaster risk management, adaptation and disaster risk reduction are still urgent priority in Bangladesh as the livelihoods and well-being of millions of people are threatened

Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture

The technical paper has been prepared by over 90 scientists from over 20 countries with a view to assisting countries in the development of their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Climate Agreement, the next round of which is to be submitted by 2020, both for adaptation and mitigation actions. The publication contextualizes the topic of climate change in fisheries and aquaculture in terms of poverty alleviation and the implementation of existing policy commitments, such as UN Agenda 2030 and the Paris Climate Agreement, and takes into account current and expected socio-economic dependencies on the sector. It includes marine and inland capture fisheries, as well as aquaculture, recognizing that the level of evidence and responses at global, regional and national scales will differ between sub-sectors. Projections of future catch potentials for marine fisheries are used to describe the expected trends by Exclusive Economic Zone, while regional chapters covering eighteen regions provide a finer analysis of marine capture fisheries and climate change implications in terms of ecological impacts, social and economic development, consequences for fisheries management and examples of recommended or already implemented adaptation options. The sector of Inland fisheries, highly vulnerable to climate change because of the low buffering capacity of water bodies, is analysed in 149 countries and in 8 selected river basins. Short and long-term impacts of climate change on aquaculture are described and presented through country by country analyses of global vulnerability. The Technical Paper also investigates the impacts of extreme events, as there is growing confidence that their number is on the increase in several regions, and is related to anthropogenic climate change. It explores the damage and loss to the fishery and aquaculture sectors and calls for a shift from reactive disaster management to proactive risk management. Moreover, the technical paper provides a toolbox of existing and recommended fisheries and aquaculture risk reduction, adaptation and disaster response, as well as guidance for the development and implementation of sectoral adaptation strategies.

Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake

This synthesis report on the technical dialogue of the first global stocktake is based on inputs received throughout the process and discussions held during each of the three meetings of the technical dialogue and serves as an overarching and factual resource that provides a comprehensive overview of discussions held during the technical dialogue, identifying key areas for further action to bridge gaps and addressing challenges and barriers in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. It provides an assessment of the collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and informs Parties about potential areas for updating and enhancing their action and support, as well as for enhancing international cooperation for climate action.

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009

Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world and will become even more so as a result of climate change. Floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in coming years. Many would say that the signs of the future changes have already begun to become apparent. These changes will threaten the significant achievements Bangladesh has made over the last 20 years in increasing income and reducing poverty, and will make it more difficult to achieve the MDGs. It is essential that Bangladesh prepares now to adapt to climate change and safeguard the future well-being of its citizens. The Government of Bangladesh’s Vision is to eradicate poverty and achieve economic and social well-being for all the people. This will be achieved through a pro-poor Climate Change Management Strategy, which prioritizes adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and also addresses low carbon development, mitigation, technology transfer and the mobilization and international provision of adequate finance. The Climate Change Action Plan is built on six pillars. The needs of the poor and vulnerable, including women and children, will be prioritized in all activities implemented under the action plan. The Climate Change Action Plan comprises immediate, short, medium and long-term programmes.

Climate Change 2021; The Physical Science Basis

The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) focuses on a full and comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change, based on evidence from more than 14,000 scientific publications available by 31 January 2021. This Report reflects recent climate science advances resulting from progress in, and the integration of, multiple lines of evidence, including: in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical and biological processes and feedbacks; and global and regional climate modelling; as well as advances in methods of analyses and insights from the growing field of climate services. The AR6 WGI Report builds on the WGI contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013, and the AR6 Special Reports1 released in 2018 and 2019. The report considers the current state of the climate in the long-term context, the understanding of human influence, the state of knowledge about possible climate futures, climate information relevant for climate-related risk assessment and regional adaptation, and the physical science basis on limiting human-induced climate change.

Rural Renewable Energy Project (RREP), Sierra Leone Endline Impact Evaluation Report

In rural Sierra Leone, household CO2 emissions come almost entirely from lighting and cooking. Prior to electrification (at baseline), the primary lighting sources were battery-powered lamps and solar lanterns for 90 percent of respondents, with 1.8 percent respondents reporting the use of diesel generators. Energy used for cooking was primarily through either firewood or charcoal for 99 percent of respondents prior to electrification. RREP community residents are quickly transitioning from more traditional fossil fuel energy sources to mini-grids. We find that respondents in RREP communities change energy use: households in RREP communities are more likely to have access to light and less likely to use diesel generators for lighting. The same holds when we restrict the analysis to connected households. However, it will take time for this transition to have a substantial impact on the environment (e.g. reduced CO2 emissions) and livelihoods (e.g. allow people to adopt more “productivity enhancing technologies”). We do not yet see a significant reduction in the use of other high-emissions energy sources, such as kerosene or firewood for both cooking and lighting. This is not surprising so soon after electrification: the energy transition to "cleaner technologies" requires time and investment in information and other marketing/financing strategies. Cleaner appliances for lighting and cooking can be expensive, and the investment necessary represents a substantial hurdle for cash-strapped households. Should appliances for cleaner lighting and cooking become more abundant/accessible and get cheaper (possibly through temporary subsidization), uptake should increase if evaluated over a longer duration of time.

Climate Change 2022: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability

This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies and integrates knowledge more strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. The assessment of climate change impacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently unfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall unsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem degradation, rapid urbanization, human demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities and a pandemic.