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Climate Change

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BANGLADESH’S AGRICULTURE, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT SECTOR ASSESSMENT AND STRATEGY

This country sector assessment (CSA) considers the context and issues facing the agriculture, natural resources, and rural development (ANR) sector in Bangladesh; it also identifies needs and opportunities for Asian Development Bank (ADB) support. Our findings inform the bank’s ANR strategy for Bangladesh. This CSA reviews (i) sector performance, including constraints and opportunities; (ii) government policies, strategies, and plans for the sector; and (iii) ADB and other development partners’ support and experience in the sector. Based on our analysis and findings, this assessment identifies strategic directions and investment priorities for ADB in Bangladesh’s ANR sector, in line with the country partnership strategy (CPS) 2021–2025


CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE - BANGLADESH

Projected average temperature rises in Bangladesh are broadly in line with the global average. The highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5) projects a rise of 3.6°C by end of the century, above the 1986–2005 baseline, compared to a rise of 1.0°C on the lowest emissions pathway (RCP2.6). • Rises in minimum and maximum temperatures are considerably higher than the change in average temperature and are concentrated in the period December–March. • Increased frequency of periods of prolonged high heat are a major threat to human health and living standards in Bangladesh, particularly in urban environments and for outdoor laborers. • Livelihoods in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, which include many of the poorest communities, are under threat from saline intrusion and degrading natural resources linked to climate change. • Flash, river, and coastal flooding are likely to be exacerbated by intensified extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and associated storm surges, placing lives, infrastructure, and the economy at risk. • Without adaptation, the number of people exposed to an extreme river flood is expected to grow by 6–12 million by the 2040s, and the number of people facing coastal inundation could grow by 2–7 million by 2070s. • Food production and the agricultural sector could face reduced yields driven by temperature rises in the growing season, saline intrusion, increased drought frequency, flooding and waterlogging. • Climate impacts are not restricted to the coastal zone and hotspots of vulnerability can be found across the country. Global modelling and local evidence all suggest that poor and marginalized groups and women are likely to suffer disproportionately in a changing climate. Unless rapid global decarbonization can be achieved, inequalities are likely to widen. • Despite recent progress in disaster risk management, adaptation and disaster risk reduction are still urgent priority in Bangladesh as the livelihoods and well-being of millions of people are threatened


Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture

The technical paper has been prepared by over 90 scientists from over 20 countries with a view to assisting countries in the development of their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Climate Agreement, the next round of which is to be submitted by 2020, both for adaptation and mitigation actions. The publication contextualizes the topic of climate change in fisheries and aquaculture in terms of poverty alleviation and the implementation of existing policy commitments, such as UN Agenda 2030 and the Paris Climate Agreement, and takes into account current and expected socio-economic dependencies on the sector. It includes marine and inland capture fisheries, as well as aquaculture, recognizing that the level of evidence and responses at global, regional and national scales will differ between sub-sectors. Projections of future catch potentials for marine fisheries are used to describe the expected trends by Exclusive Economic Zone, while regional chapters covering eighteen regions provide a finer analysis of marine capture fisheries and climate change implications in terms of ecological impacts, social and economic development, consequences for fisheries management and examples of recommended or already implemented adaptation options. The sector of Inland fisheries, highly vulnerable to climate change because of the low buffering capacity of water bodies, is analysed in 149 countries and in 8 selected river basins. Short and long-term impacts of climate change on aquaculture are described and presented through country by country analyses of global vulnerability. The Technical Paper also investigates the impacts of extreme events, as there is growing confidence that their number is on the increase in several regions, and is related to anthropogenic climate change. It explores the damage and loss to the fishery and aquaculture sectors and calls for a shift from reactive disaster management to proactive risk management. Moreover, the technical paper provides a toolbox of existing and recommended fisheries and aquaculture risk reduction, adaptation and disaster response, as well as guidance for the development and implementation of sectoral adaptation strategies.


Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake

This synthesis report on the technical dialogue of the first global stocktake is based on inputs received throughout the process and discussions held during each of the three meetings of the technical dialogue and serves as an overarching and factual resource that provides a comprehensive overview of discussions held during the technical dialogue, identifying key areas for further action to bridge gaps and addressing challenges and barriers in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. It provides an assessment of the collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and informs Parties about potential areas for updating and enhancing their action and support, as well as for enhancing international cooperation for climate action.


Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009

Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world and will become even more so as a result of climate change. Floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in coming years. Many would say that the signs of the future changes have already begun to become apparent. These changes will threaten the significant achievements Bangladesh has made over the last 20 years in increasing income and reducing poverty, and will make it more difficult to achieve the MDGs. It is essential that Bangladesh prepares now to adapt to climate change and safeguard the future well-being of its citizens. The Government of Bangladesh’s Vision is to eradicate poverty and achieve economic and social well-being for all the people. This will be achieved through a pro-poor Climate Change Management Strategy, which prioritizes adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and also addresses low carbon development, mitigation, technology transfer and the mobilization and international provision of adequate finance. The Climate Change Action Plan is built on six pillars. The needs of the poor and vulnerable, including women and children, will be prioritized in all activities implemented under the action plan. The Climate Change Action Plan comprises immediate, short, medium and long-term programmes.


Climate Change 2021; The Physical Science Basis

The Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) focuses on a full and comprehensive assessment of the physical science basis of climate change, based on evidence from more than 14,000 scientific publications available by 31 January 2021. This Report reflects recent climate science advances resulting from progress in, and the integration of, multiple lines of evidence, including: in situ and remote observations; paleoclimate information; understanding of climate drivers and physical, chemical and biological processes and feedbacks; and global and regional climate modelling; as well as advances in methods of analyses and insights from the growing field of climate services. The AR6 WGI Report builds on the WGI contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013, and the AR6 Special Reports1 released in 2018 and 2019. The report considers the current state of the climate in the long-term context, the understanding of human influence, the state of knowledge about possible climate futures, climate information relevant for climate-related risk assessment and regional adaptation, and the physical science basis on limiting human-induced climate change.


Rural Renewable Energy Project (RREP), Sierra Leone Endline Impact Evaluation Report

In rural Sierra Leone, household CO2 emissions come almost entirely from lighting and cooking. Prior to electrification (at baseline), the primary lighting sources were battery-powered lamps and solar lanterns for 90 percent of respondents, with 1.8 percent respondents reporting the use of diesel generators. Energy used for cooking was primarily through either firewood or charcoal for 99 percent of respondents prior to electrification. RREP community residents are quickly transitioning from more traditional fossil fuel energy sources to mini-grids. We find that respondents in RREP communities change energy use: households in RREP communities are more likely to have access to light and less likely to use diesel generators for lighting. The same holds when we restrict the analysis to connected households. However, it will take time for this transition to have a substantial impact on the environment (e.g. reduced CO2 emissions) and livelihoods (e.g. allow people to adopt more “productivity enhancing technologies”). We do not yet see a significant reduction in the use of other high-emissions energy sources, such as kerosene or firewood for both cooking and lighting. This is not surprising so soon after electrification: the energy transition to "cleaner technologies" requires time and investment in information and other marketing/financing strategies. Cleaner appliances for lighting and cooking can be expensive, and the investment necessary represents a substantial hurdle for cash-strapped households. Should appliances for cleaner lighting and cooking become more abundant/accessible and get cheaper (possibly through temporary subsidization), uptake should increase if evaluated over a longer duration of time.


Climate Change 2022: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability

This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies and integrates knowledge more strongly across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. The assessment of climate change impacts and risks as well as adaptation is set against concurrently unfolding non-climatic global trends e.g., biodiversity loss, overall unsustainable consumption of natural resources, land and ecosystem degradation, rapid urbanization, human demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities and a pandemic.


Defining Adaptation and Distinguishing It from Other Development Investments

As the effects of climate change become more discernable in ecosystems, economies and communities, the urgency of understanding, preparing for and adjusting to its impacts grows. Indeed, adaptation has become integral to responding to the climate crisis and securing sustainable development outcomes around the world. While there is a growing consensus around the need for adaptation, a unifying operational definition does not yet exist particularly for guiding resource allocation and/or investment decisions. However, researchers and practitioners alike agree on some of its core features: adaptation is an ongoing, iterative process that precludes characterizations of a final adapted state; its overarching aim is to reduce the vulnerability of people and places to both current and future risks and changes; it requires climate information even if uncertain or rudimentary-to understand why and what kind of adjustments are needed; its execution and benefits are often context-specific, as both the manifestations of climate change and abilities to respond to them are shaped by local circumstances; and adaptation often involves planning for or managing uncertainty..


Gender in coastal and fisheries resource management: A Regional Synthesis Report

Coastal communities in South and Southeast Asia are strongly tied to marine and coastal resources and ecosystems which are vital for their food security and livelihoods. Meanwhile, the rampant expansion of the global economy is leading to rapid changes of coastal and marine resources due to overfishing and hasty coastal development. This has severe consequences for different groups of women and men from communities at the forefront when it comes to experiencing the hardships of declining marine resources and degradation of coastlines. Gendered experiences in fisheries and coastal resource management are often overlooked. To redress this gap, IUCN’s Mangroves for the Future (MFF) programme recognizes that the involvement, contribution and role of both men and women are important to the function and well-being of coastal communities, while gender equality is fundamental to conservation and sustainable development. Gender equity and equality are upheld as fundamental guiding principles in the FAO Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-scale Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication (SSF Guidelines). In the Southeast Asian region, gender perspectives have been highlighted in the ASEAN-SEAFDEC Plan of Action on Sustainable Fisheries for Food Security for the ASEAN Region Towards 2020. With the Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center (SEAFDEC) and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Asia Center, MFF has supported the development of a Regional Gender Analysis to improve knowledge and understanding of the state of women’s and men’s engagement in environmental decision-making and to explore drivers of inequality and the constraints they pose to women in fisheries and coastal contexts. The study project covered 12 countries in South and Southeast Asia: Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam.